SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

Home Prices, Market Trends, Graphs Video and Infographics

SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOUSING MARKET AT A GLANCE

snohomish county housing market report

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

3 KEY INDICATORS
Snohomish County Housing Market

  1. SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
    • 55.5% (SURGE)
  2. INTEREST RATE:
    • 6.87% (MANAGEABLE)
  3. INVENTORY LEVEL:
    • 1.4 Month (SHORTAGE)

THE BIG DEAL
We are seeing intense demand with 55.5% of homes going pending within 30 days—a “surge” level of Sales Activity Intensity™. Inventory is low at 1.3 months, despite 1,103 new listings, as homes are absorbed quickly. Mortgage rates are up to 6.87%, challenging affordability but not slowing down motivated buyers. With election results expected shortly, potential housing policy changes could impact rates and buyer-seller dynamics as we head into 2025.

Enjoy The Snohomish County Market Report Video

Snohomish County Housing Market Report for November 2024: Tight Supply, Strong Demand & Election Implications

Hey, Snohomish real estate followers! November’s housing market has been anything but quiet. Buyer demand continues to soar, with 55.5% of homes going pending within the first 30 days—a level that reflects intense “surge” market conditions. Inventory is tight, holding at just 1.3 months, while mortgage rates are up to 6.87%, making financing a bit tougher on budgets. Adding another layer of intrigue, election results expected this week could influence future housing policies, leaving many wondering what’s next for the market.

In this report, we’ll break down the latest market stats and trends, offering key insights into Sales Activity Intensity™, Monthly Inventory Levels, and Interest Rates to help Snohomish home sellers and buyers make informed decisions. Let’s dive in!

Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators

  1. Sales Activity Intensity:

    • Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
    • Scale:
          • <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
          • 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
          • 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
          • 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
          • 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
          • 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
          • 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.

    2. Monthly Inventory Levels:

      • Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
      • Scale:
        • 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
        • 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
        • 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
        • 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
        • 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
        • 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.

    3. Interest Rates:

      • Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
      • Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
        • 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
        • 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
        • 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
        • 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.

    Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.

    Sales Activity Intensity™

    Current Effect: The Sales Activity Intensity™ in Snohomish County is high, with 55.5% of homes selling within the first 30 days of listing. This level of activity points to a “surge” in buyer demand, with homes spending an average of 31 days on the market and drawing 13 showings before going pending.

    What This Means: Buyers, you’re entering a highly competitive market. With homes moving quickly, pre-approval is crucial to act decisively. Sellers, this high-intensity environment is favorable, but with a steady increase in listings, competitive pricing and home presentation are key to attract offers quickly.

    Monthly Inventory Levels

    Current Effect: Snohomish County inventory stands at 1.3 months, signaling a shortage. Even with 1,688 homes available and 1,103 new listings this month, high demand is driving quick sales, keeping inventory limited.

    What This Means: For buyers, this tight inventory means strong competition. Sellers, while you have leverage, it’s wise to consider market trends, especially as the election results could bring shifts in housing policy that impact future inventory and buyer demand.

    Interest Rates

    Current Effect: Interest rates are holding steady at 6.87%, slightly higher than last month’s 6.12% after the Fed’s previous cuts. This rate increase could affect affordability, yet buyer demand remains robust, indicating buyers are adjusting to current financing conditions.

    What This Means: For buyers, higher rates may strain monthly budgets, but demand isn’t expected to ease significantly. Sellers, consider rate concessions as a strategic move to attract buyers who may be feeling the pinch from higher rates.

    Overall Market Trends

    Snohomish County’s housing market remains competitive, with strong demand and low inventory making it a favorable time for sellers. As election results are finalized, potential shifts in housing and economic policy could impact buyer and seller expectations. While demand shows no sign of slowing, policy changes could influence mortgage rates and affordability, potentially shaping 2025’s housing landscape.

    Key Takeaways:

    For Sellers

    • Price and Stage Wisely: With a steady increase in listings, sellers should price competitively and focus on presentation to stand out in a crowded market.
    • List Now to Capture Demand: With the market still favoring sellers, now’s a good time to list before potential shifts from the election impact the housing market.

    For Buyers

    • Get Pre-Approved: In this competitive landscape, having pre-approval allows for faster decisions.
    • Negotiate Where Possible: With more listings available, explore opportunities for seller concessions, like rate buy-downs, to make financing more manageable.

    Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction

    Resale Residential Homes: The average sale price for Snohomish County homes in November was $816,864, with a 99.7% listing-to-sale price ratio. Homes continue to sell quickly, so sellers should consider strategic pricing as inventory slowly rises.

    Condominiums: Demand for condos remains consistent among budget-conscious buyers, though the impact of HOA fees on monthly costs should be considered.

    New Construction: New builds remain attractive, especially for buyers seeking energy efficiency. Builders may want to consider incentives like rate buy-downs to stay competitive as financing costs rise.

    The Fed’s Influence

    The recent rise in mortgage rates to 6.87% has increased monthly payment obligations, impacting buyer budgets. With further potential adjustments by the Fed, some buyers are motivated to lock in current rates before additional increases.

    Seasonality

    While winter typically brings a slowdown, November is showing surprising activity. Buyers should be ready to act quickly, and sellers can still expect solid offers with careful pricing. The winter season may slow down the market slightly, but for now, demand remains high.

    Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers

    For Sellers

    • Stage & Price Competitively: Even with high demand, new listings mean competitive pricing is crucial.
    • Act Now: With buyer interest strong, listing now could maximize exposure and secure quick sales before year-end.

    For Buyers

    • Pre-Approval is Essential: Higher rates and competition make pre-approval crucial for knowing your budget and acting fast.
    • Explore Seller Concessions: Look for sellers willing to negotiate on closing costs or rate buy-downs to help manage financing costs.

    The Rent vs. Buy Conversation

    With rental prices rising, buying is becoming an attractive option for those planning to stay in Snohomish long-term. The costs of renting continue to increase, making buying a more stable choice that can help build equity over time.

    Real Estate Fall Equinox

    Over the spring and summer months the number of new resale listings is greater than the number of homes going under contract. In most markets, we enter the real estate fall equinox in November where the market flips as the number of homes going under contract is equal to or greater than the number of new resale listings coming on the market.J Lennox Scott

    LENNOX SCOTT

    CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate

    lennox scott ceo of john l scott
    Snohomish County Real Estate GRAPHS & Data

    SALES ACTIVITY AND INVENTORY

    sales activity intensity

    With 1.4 months of supply if no other homes were listed in the next 42 days we would run out of houses to buy.

    If you are looking for homes over 1.5 mil you are seeing more inventory with 3 months supply.

    916 homes were sold in Snohomish County last month.

    As you can see from the table above anything below 5 months is considered low.  Low inventory means higher demand.  Higher demand drives the price up.

    In Snohomish County homes in the 350K-1mil price range are the most commonly listed and sold.

    DAYS ON MARKET
    sales activity

    55.5% of homes are selling in less than 30 days in Snohomish County. A normal market is closer to 30%.

    Houses in the $500-750K price range are selling 60.9% of the time in the first 30 days.

    Because there are less homes for sale and there are still many buyers trying to buy… the homes that do list are usually selling fairly quickly.

    PRICE

    AVERAGE SALE PRICE: $816,864

    SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL:  $894,581

    CONDOS: $578,537

    AVERAGE SALES PRICE 5 YEARS AGO: $507266

    % INCREASE OVER 5 YEAR SPAN: 61%

    LISTINGS SELLING COMPARED TO LIST PRICE: 99.7%

    TIMING
    yearly housing cycles

    As you can see from the John L. Scott 6 phases to a yearly house cycle chart we are falling into the slowest Winter Market.

    JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH
    WHILE WE ARE NOT SURE HOW THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL END UP HERE IS THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION

    CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

    wa employment rates by county

    WA Employment Security Department

    Where Counties are Growing[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

    Map of Seattle inbound & outbound migration trends

    Snohomish County Housing Market Stats

    STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK

    • $816,864 was the average sold price for listings in Snohomish County.
    • 1,103 new listings went on the market this month.
    • 1,688 homes were for sale during the month.
    • 942 homes went pending in Snohomish County.
    • 916 homes sold this month
    • 1.3  months of inventory available in Snohomish County.
    • 31 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Snohomish County.
    • 99.7% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
    • $406 was the average price per square foot in Snohomish County.
    • $748,566,245 was the total closed sales volume for Snohomish County.
    • 6.87% was the interest rate
    • 55.5% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Snohomish County.
    • 13 Average showings to go Pending
    • 5.3 Showings per Listing

    SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOMES FOR SALE

    Image
    SEARCH SNOHOMISH COUNTY

    Snohomish County Housing Market Summary

    As we close out November 2024, the Snohomish County housing market remains active and competitive, even as mortgage rates rose to 6.87%. The average sold price is holding strong at $816,864, reflecting ongoing buyer interest despite the affordability constraints higher rates impose. This month, 916 homes sold, and 942 went pending, indicating sustained demand.

    Inventory has tightened further to 1.3 months, well within seller’s market territory. Homes are averaging 31 days on market, with buyers still moving quickly, as evidenced by 55.5% of homes going pending within the first 30 days. Although this reflects a slight dip from last month’s 56.1%, it confirms the market’s high intensity.

    With 1,103 new listings and 1,688 homes for sale, inventory is providing slightly more options for buyers, but demand is still absorbing most of the supply. Sellers can still expect favorable outcomes, though pricing strategically and ensuring homes are in top condition are key with the increased competition.

    While mortgage rates are up from last month’s 6.12%, demand remains strong, signaling that committed buyers are willing to adapt to higher financing costs. Snohomish County remains a seller’s market, but the combination of rising listings and election-driven policy uncertainties may introduce slight shifts in leverage as we move into 2025. For now, both buyers and sellers should stay prepared to make the most of this active market as we head into year-end.

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