SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
Home Prices, Interest Rates, Real Estate Statistics, Video and Charts
TABLE OF CONTENTS
3 KEY INDICATORS
Seattle Housing Market
- SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
- 46.4% (VERY STRONG)
- INTEREST RATE:
- 6.87% (MANAGEABLE)
- INVENTORY LEVEL:
- 2.1 Months (LOW)
THE BIG DEAL
November’s headliner? Rising interest rates—again! Rates have climbed to an uncomfortable 6.87%, a level that’s nudging buyers to rethink their budgets, but it’s far from record highs. Surprisingly, Sales Activity Intensity hasn’t cooled off in response. In fact, more buyers are scrambling to secure homes, likely bracing for more rate hikes in the coming months. The market is tense, with the upcoming election stirring more questions about future housing policies.
Seattle Housing Market Report for November 2024: Rising Rates, Sales Intensity & Election Buzz
"Mortgage rates are climbing, but Seattle's housing market isn't slowing down!"
Despite recent rate increases, Seattle's real estate remains competitive, with rising sales intensity and record-high listing activity. But there’s more: with election results on the horizon, many are wondering how future housing policies might impact Seattle’s housing market dynamics.
In this post, we’ll dive into the key factors driving Seattle’s housing market, with a close look at Sales Activity Intensity™, Monthly Inventory Levels, and Interest Rates—essential metrics for anyone planning to sell their home in Seattle right now. So if you're curious about what’s ahead and how to make a strategic move in this environment, read on!
Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators
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Sales Activity Intensity:
- Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
- Scale:
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- <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
- 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
- 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
- 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
- 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
- 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
- 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.
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Monthly Inventory Levels:
- Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
- Scale:
- 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
- 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
- 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
- 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
- 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
- 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.
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Interest Rates:
- Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
- Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
- 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
- 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
- 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
- 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.
Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.
Sales Activity Intensity™
Current Effect: Sales Activity Intensity™ in Seattle is notably high, with 46.4% of homes selling within the first 30 days. This marks the market as “very strong,” and indicates heightened demand, especially as we enter the typically quieter months of the year. Homes are spending an average of 29 days on market, and the competition remains robust, with homes averaging 14 showings before going pending.
What This Means: Buyers, it’s a busy market out there! With almost half of homes going under contract within a month, acting quickly is essential. Sellers, this high-intensity environment works in your favor, but competitive pricing and smart presentation can still help attract more serious offers in a crowded field.
Monthly Inventory Levels
Current Effect: Inventory in Seattle has tightened further to 2.1 months, down from 2.3 in October. Although 1,220 new listings hit the market, there were still 2,319 homes available, which isn’t enough to keep up with demand. The market is well within “low” inventory levels, signaling that while there are homes to choose from, buyers face strong competition for desirable properties.
What This Means: Buyers, expect the competition to stay tough. While there are some new listings, high demand means homes are moving fast. Sellers, low inventory levels keep the market in your favor, but pricing competitively is still key, especially with more homes coming online each month.
Interest Rates
Current Effect: Rates have risen to around 6.87%, up from October’s post-Fed rate cut of 6.12%. While not a historic high, this rate increase affects buyers’ monthly payments, potentially reducing some purchasing power, especially for first-time buyers.
What This Means: For buyers, higher rates mean higher monthly payments, but demand is still driving strong competition. Sellers, consider offering rate concessions to help buyers offset financing costs, which can make your property stand out in the current market.
Overall Market Trends
Seattle’s housing market remains active, with tight inventory, strong demand, and rising rates defining November. Despite the seasonal shift, high buyer activity has continued, and with election results pending, there’s an added layer of market suspense. While inventory and rising rates may give some buyers pause, the Seattle market remains competitive for now, with buyers ready to secure homes before the year-end and potential future rate hikes.
Key Takeaways:
For Sellers
- Stage and Price Right: Even in a favorable market, sellers should make their home appealing with smart staging and competitive pricing.
- Seize the Moment: With demand high, consider listing now to capture buyer interest while activity remains high.
For Buyers
- Stay Pre-Approved: The rising rates make pre-approval crucial, so you know exactly what you can afford.
- Look for Flexibility: More listings are emerging, so don’t hesitate to explore options and ask for seller concessions, especially if a home has been on the market for a while.
Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction
Resale Residential Homes: The average sale price for Seattle homes in November was $1,012,010, and the sales-to-list price ratio was 100.3%, meaning homes are still selling right around asking price. Sellers should prepare to move quickly, with most homes going under contract in about 29 days.
Condominiums: Condo prices remain appealing for first-time buyers or those looking for a lower price point. Though condo demand is steady, buyers should watch for HOA fees, which can impact monthly expenses.
New Construction: Demand for new builds is strong, particularly as buyers look for energy-efficient features and newer layouts. Builders might consider incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs to attract rate-sensitive buyers in the current climate.
The Fed’s Influence
The recent rate hike has impacted monthly mortgage payments, with the rate now at 6.87%. The Fed may make further adjustments to respond to inflation, which could keep buyer activity high as they try to secure homes before any additional hikes.
Seasonality
Although November typically sees slower real estate activity, the combination of increased listings, strong buyer interest, and rate increases suggests that this season may be busier than usual. For buyers, the pre-winter period might be a good opportunity to find new listings before the winter slowdown. Sellers can expect steady activity, especially if they price their homes to align with rising competition.
Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers
For Sellers
- Stage & Price Competitively: With high competition, sellers should focus on pricing right and making their property attractive with simple staging.
- List Now to Capture Demand: Buyer demand remains high, making now a great time to list and take advantage of high intensity before the market potentially shifts in 2025.
For Buyers
- Get Pre-Approved: With higher rates and more competition, knowing your budget is essential for quick decision-making.
- Negotiate Concessions: Some sellers may be open to offering concessions or rate buy-downs, so explore options to ease financing costs.
The Rent vs. Buy Conversation
With rent up 8.3% year-over-year, buying is becoming an appealing option, especially for those planning to stay in Seattle long-term. Average rents in Seattle hover around $3,825 for a three-bedroom, close to monthly mortgage costs on a $700,000 home at current rates. Buying can be a strategic hedge against inflation for those seeking stable housing costs and long-term equity growth.
Real Estate Fall EquinoxOver the spring and summer months the number of new resale listings is greater than the number of homes going under contract. In most markets, we enter the real estate fall equinox in November where the market flips as the number of homes going under contract is equal to or greater than the number of new resale listings coming on the market.J Lennox Scott
LENNOX SCOTT
CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate
Seattle Real Estate GRAPHS AND Data
With 2.1 months of supply if no other homes were listed in the next 63 days we would run out of houses to buy.
There were 1,220 new listings in November.
If you are looking for homes 2 million plus you are seeing more inventory than $500k-$1million.
As you can see from the table above anything below 5 months of inventory is considered low. Low inventory means higher demand. Higher demand drives the price up.
861 homes were sold in Seattle last month.
In the Seattle housing market homes in the 500k-1m+ price range typically sell the fastest.
MARKET INTENSITY
46.4% of homes are selling in less than 30 days in the Seattle housing market. A median market is usually closer to 30%.
Houses in the 1.5-2mil price range are selling 59.8% of the time in the first 30 days.
Even as there are more homes for sale, there are still many buyers trying to buy… the homes that do list are still selling fairly quickly.
JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH
WHILE WE ARE NOT SURE HOW THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL END UP HERE IS THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
Seattle Market Stats
STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK
- $1,012,010 was the average sold price for listings in Seattle.
- 1,220 new listings went on the market this month.
- 2,319homes were for sale during the month.
- 882 homes went pending in Seattle.
- 861 homes sold this month
- 2.1 months of inventory available in Seattle
- 29 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle
- 100.3% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
- $563 was the average price per square foot in Seattle
- $870,000,190 was the total closed sales volume for Seattle
- 6.87% was the interest rate
- 46.4 % of homes sold in the first 30 days in Seattle
- 14 Average showings to Pending
- 4.9 Showings per Listing
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET Summary
As we wrap up our analysis of the Seattle housing market for November 2024, it’s clear that competition is still fierce, and signs of continued demand are everywhere. Homes are selling in about 29 days on average, with an impressive 100.3% listing-to-sales price ratio. Sales Activity Intensity™ jumped to 46.4%, showing that almost half of all homes go pending within the first 30 days of listing—a strong indicator that demand is outpacing supply as we near year’s end.
While 1,220 new listings hit the market this month, inventory still dropped slightly to 2.1 months, underscoring Seattle’s ongoing supply shortage. Buyers are competing for a limited number of homes, and the tight inventory keeps sellers in a favorable position, though rising listings mean that sellers should be thoughtful about pricing and presentation to stand out.
The key shift this month is the interest rate increase to 6.87%, a change that could impact some buyers’ purchasing power. However, Seattle’s demand remains resilient, with motivated buyers still stepping up to lock in homes before any further rate hikes. Seattle’s strong job market and persistent housing needs keep demand steady, ensuring that competition remains high even as affordability challenges grow.
Looking forward, buyers should move decisively to secure properties under current rates while keeping an eye out for potential concessions on homes that linger on the market. Sellers can continue to enjoy the benefits of high demand but should aim to list competitively as inventory rises and buyers face financing constraints. As Seattle’s market heads into winter, it’s still fast-moving and competitive, but signs of stabilization are on the horizon.
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