SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
Home Prices, Interest Rates, Real Estate Statistics, Video and Charts
TABLE OF CONTENTS
3 KEY INDICATORS
Seattle Housing Market
- SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
- 44.2% (STRONG)
- INTEREST RATE:
- 6.99% (MANAGEABLE)
- INVENTORY LEVEL:
- 2.4 Months (LOW)
THE BIG DEAL
Recovery Mode Engaged;
The Seattle housing market is officially on the upswing, marking a year-over-year recovery for the first time since 2021. January is showing signs of increased market activity, with buyers jumping back in after the holiday slowdown and sales volume climbing. This recovery aligns with the natural rhythm of the 10-year housing cycle, signaling opportunities ahead for those ready to act.
Seattle Housing Market Report: January 2025 – Recovery Gains Momentum
"Seattle's median home price is currently $825K, reflecting a 7% increase over the past year."
Welcome to 2025! While the New Year is all about resolutions and fresh starts, Seattle’s housing market is already flexing its recovery muscles. After a few years of ups and downs, we’re seeing clear signs of renewed activity. Buyer demand is on the rise, inventory levels remain manageable, and homes are selling faster than most people can pack up their moving boxes.
For sellers, this is fantastic news. With nearly 44.2% of homes selling in their first month on the market, it’s a perfect time to make a move. For buyers, while interest rates remain in the “uncomfortable” zone, they’ve steadied just enough to encourage reentry into the market.
This report breaks down the latest trends, explains what they mean for you, and offers insights to help navigate the current landscape. Ready to dive in? Let’s get started!
Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators
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Sales Activity Intensity:
- Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
- Scale:
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- <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
- 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
- 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
- 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
- 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
- 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
- 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.
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Monthly Inventory Levels:
- Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
- Scale:
- 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
- 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
- 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
- 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
- 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
- 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.
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Interest Rates:
- Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
- Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
- 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
- 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
- 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
- 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.
Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.
Sales Activity Intensity™
Current Effect:
Sales Activity Intensity™ in Seattle is at a solid 44.2%, slightly down from December’s 51.7% but still within the “strong” market range. This means nearly half of all homes listed are going pending within the first 30 days. Homes are spending an average of 45 days on the market, with 16 showings before going pending. Demand remains strong despite the seasonal lull, setting the stage for an active spring market.
What This Means:
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For Buyers: The market is still competitive! Homes are moving quickly, so having your financing ready and a clear strategy will make all the difference. Be prepared to move fast when you find the right home.
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For Sellers: The demand is still on your side. Price your home strategically and consider small upgrades or staging to make your property stand out in a competitive environment.
Monthly Inventory Levels
Current Effect:
Seattle’s housing inventory sits at 2.4 months, slightly up from December’s 2.2 months but still categorized as “low.” A total of 414 new listings hit the market, and 1,332 homes were available for sale in January. While this gives buyers a bit more breathing room, inventory remains tight enough to keep the market leaning in favor of sellers.
What This Means:
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For Buyers: Limited inventory means competition for desirable properties is still fierce. Be flexible with your criteria and act decisively to improve your chances of securing a home.
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For Sellers: Low inventory gives you leverage. Homes in good condition and priced well are likely to attract significant interest, and possibly multiple offers.
Interest Rates
Current Effect:
The average mortgage rate for January stands at 6.99%, reflecting stability after December’s 6.91%. While still in the “uncomfortable” range, this rate offers predictability compared to the sharp fluctuations of 2022-2023. However, higher rates continue to weigh on affordability, particularly for first-time buyers.
What This Means:
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For Buyers: Lock in your rate soon to avoid potential increases. If affordability is a concern, explore options like adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary rate buy-downs to ease monthly payments.
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For Sellers: To attract rate-sensitive buyers, consider offering concessions like a rate buy-down. This can make your home stand out and help close the deal faster.
Overall Market Trends
Seattle’s housing market is kicking off 2025 with strong momentum. Low inventory, a healthy Sales Activity Intensity™, and steady (albeit high) interest rates are setting the stage for a robust first quarter. Sellers remain in a favorable position, while buyers are adjusting their strategies to compete in this dynamic market.
Key Takeaways
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For Sellers:
- Stage and Price Right: Homes that show well and are competitively priced continue to attract strong offers.
- Capitalize on Low Inventory: With fewer homes on the market, motivated buyers are willing to pay for quality properties.
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For Buyers:
- Stay Pre-Approved: A pre-approval letter is essential in this fast-paced market.
- Negotiate Creatively: Explore seller concessions like rate buy-downs or closing cost contributions to improve affordability.
Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction
Resale Residential Homes:
January’s average sale price for Seattle homes is $956,758, with a sales-to-list price ratio of 98.9%, indicating that homes are selling close to their asking price. Homes are averaging 45 days on the market, giving sellers a reasonable expectation for a swift transaction.
Condominiums:
Condos continue to offer an affordable entry point for buyers, particularly first-timers. However, it’s crucial to factor in HOA fees, which can significantly impact monthly budgets.
New Construction:
Demand for new builds remains steady, especially among buyers looking for energy-efficient designs and modern amenities. Builders offering rate incentives or upgrades are seeing strong interest from rate-sensitive buyers.
The Fed’s Influence
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy remains a key factor in shaping mortgage rates. While the current rate of 6.99% is stable, any future rate hikes could further impact buyer affordability. Acting sooner rather than later to secure financing remains a smart strategy for buyers.
Seasonality
January is typically quieter in the real estate world, but Seattle is bucking the trend. The “winter cleanup” of unsold inventory combined with fewer new listings creates strong competition among buyers. For sellers, this means less competition and motivated buyers ready to act.
Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers
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For Sellers:
- Stage & Price Competitively: Buyers are looking for move-in-ready homes. Clean, staged, and competitively priced properties are getting the most attention.
- List Now to Capture Demand: Don’t wait for spring—buyers are already active and ready to move.
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For Buyers:
- Get Pre-Approved: Knowing your budget is critical in today’s market.
- Negotiate Seller Concessions: Sellers are often open to providing closing cost assistance or rate buy-downs, which can make a big difference in affordability.
The Rent vs. Buy Conversation
With Seattle rental prices continuing to rise, buying is becoming an increasingly attractive option for long-term residents. Monthly rents for a three-bedroom home average around $3,825, comparable to the mortgage payment for a $700,000 home with today’s rates. If you’re planning to stay put, buying offers financial stability and a path to building equity over time.
Welcome 2025! New Year KickoffAnother year of the housing market is here! We anticipate a pattern of more resale listings in 2025 than in 2024. However, as buyers re-enter the market post-holiday celebrations, we will start to see higher Sales Activity Intensity™ for available inventory.
J Lennox Scott
LENNOX SCOTT
CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate
Seattle Real Estate GRAPHS AND Data
Current Effect:
With 2.4 months of supply, if no additional homes were listed, Seattle would run out of houses to buy in just over 72 days. This persistently low inventory level continues to drive competition among buyers.
In January, 414 new listings hit the market, and 604 homes were sold—a clear indicator of how quickly homes are moving. Properties priced between $500k and $1M+ remain the most in-demand, reflecting strong buyer interest in the mid-market segment.
For homes priced at $2M+, inventory is slightly more available compared to the $500k–$1M range, but competition is still robust, especially in desirable neighborhoods with high-quality amenities and schools.
Why Does Low Inventory Matter?
- Inventory below 5 months is considered “low,” and Seattle’s 2.4 months of supply keeps it firmly in a seller’s market.
- Low supply fuels higher demand, sustaining or even boosting home prices despite seasonal slowdowns or economic challenges.
Key Takeaway:
- For Buyers: Acting swiftly is critical. Homes are selling steadily, and competition is especially fierce for properties in the $500k–$1M range, where demand is strongest.
- For Sellers: The ongoing inventory shortage creates an opportunity to capitalize on favorable market conditions, positioning your home for competitive offers and potentially above-list pricing.
MARKET INTENSITY
In January, 44.2% of homes in the Seattle housing market are going pending within the first 30 days, solidly in the "strong" range. While slightly down from December’s 51.7%, this is still well above the typical 30% median market intensity, highlighting ongoing buyer competition as the new year begins.
Luxury homes in the $1.5M to $2M range continue to shine, with an impressive 53.6% selling within the first 30 days. This demonstrates sustained demand at the higher end of the market, even during a traditionally slower season.
Although inventory has increased slightly compared to December, demand remains robust. Homes that are listed are still selling quickly, keeping both buyers and sellers on their toes. For buyers, being prepared to act swiftly is essential, while sellers should capitalize on this momentum with strategic pricing and appealing presentation.
Key Takeaway:
- For Buyers: With nearly half of all homes going pending in under a month, preparation is key. Work with your broker to be ready to make a strong offer when you find the right property.
- For Sellers: This level of demand gives you the upper hand. Present your home well, price it competitively, and you’ll be in a strong position to secure offers quickly, even in the luxury market segment.
PRICE
The average sale price for homes in January 2025 is $1,081,111 for single-family residences and $683,692 for condos. Compared to five years ago in January 2020, when the average sale price was $880,241 ($964,186 for single-family residences and $559,584 for condos), this reflects substantial growth in property values.
- Overall Home Value Increase (5 Years): 38.5%
- Single-Family Homes: Up 30.7%
- Condos: Up 22.2%
This steady appreciation underscores Seattle’s real estate market as a strong long-term investment.
The list-to-sale price ratio remains at 98.9%, indicating homes are still selling close to their asking prices, which reflects competitive buyer demand and realistic seller pricing strategies.
Key Takeaway:
Seattle’s housing market continues to deliver significant equity growth, making it a reliable investment over the years. Sellers can take advantage of this appreciation to maximize returns, while buyers should focus on making informed decisions based on these trends to secure long-term value.
TIMING
According to the John L. Scott 6 Phases of the Yearly Housing Cycle, we are currently in the Winter Market, traditionally the slowest period of the year for real estate activity. This phase is marked by fewer new listings and a general reduction in buyer activity.
However, in a city like Seattle, even the Winter Market isn’t as quiet as you might expect. Motivated buyers are still out there, actively searching for homes in a market with limited inventory and strong demand.
What This Means:
- For Sellers: The slower season means less competition, which can work in your favor. With fewer listings on the market, your home has a better chance of standing out and attracting serious buyers.
- For Buyers: While the pace of activity is calmer, motivated sellers are often more open to negotiation during this phase, creating potential opportunities for favorable terms or concessions.
Seattle’s Winter Market is a quieter time, but it still holds opportunities for those ready to take action. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding the seasonal dynamics can give you the edge you need to make the most of this unique market phase.
Seattle Market Stats
STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK
- $956,758 was the average sold price for listings in Seattle.
- 414 new listings went on the market this month.
- 1,332 homes were for sale during the month.
- 493 homes went pending in Seattle.
- 604 homes sold this month
- 2.4 months of inventory available in Seattle
- 45 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle
- 98.9% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
- $562 was the average price per square foot in Seattle
- $579,093,270 was the total closed sales volume for Seattle
- 6.99% was the interest rate
- 44.2% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Seattle
- 16 Average showings to Pending
- 4.4 Showings per Listing
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET Summary
As we close out our analysis of the Seattle housing market for January 2025, it’s clear that the market remains highly active, even in the midst of the Winter Market phase. Homes are selling in an average of 45 days, with a 98.9% list-to-sales price ratio, reflecting sustained demand despite seasonal slowdowns. Sales Activity Intensity™ sits at 44.2%, showing nearly half of all homes are going pending within 30 days—another indicator of strong buyer interest and limited supply.
Even with 414 new listings entering the market, inventory remains tight at 2.4 months, keeping Seattle firmly in a seller’s market. Buyers are competing for what’s available, which continues to put sellers in an advantageous position. However, sellers should still focus on competitive pricing and strong home presentation to attract motivated buyers and maximize their outcomes.
Interest rates currently stand at 6.99%, which, while stabilizing, remains in the "uncomfortable" range. This is influencing buyer affordability but has not dampened Seattle’s market fundamentals. Buyers are stepping up to secure homes and lock in rates before potential changes, leveraging creative financing solutions where needed.
Looking ahead, sellers can capitalize on this high-demand, low-inventory environment, while buyers must remain ready to act swiftly and negotiate effectively. As we move deeper into winter, Seattle’s housing market shows no signs of slowing down, setting the stage for a dynamic year ahead. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or simply stay informed, now is the time to take action and stay ahead in this ever-evolving market.
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